Obscure Economic Indicators: Rising

---by Micheal

Every day on the radio, I'm bombarded with news about this or that economic indicator. Up, down, sideways. In the toilet. Recovering, Whatever. There are as many spin-meisters as there are radio stations. Sorry to say, I'm here to add one of my own.

Obscure Economic Indicator: How many calls my boss gets from investment firms.

Background: I'm the first one to get at work, so for an hour or so, I answer the phones. Months ago, my boss (a partner/owner in the small firm) would get one or two calls a week from investment firms. They would call early (when I was there alone) on the assumption that they could get the early-bird boss before the receptionist arrived and would screen his calls. They would also cloyingly act like an old personal friend of his as another tactic to get through the screening. "Is my ol' buddy Frank in yet?"

They all seemed to assume that as a business owner, Frank had a big pile of cash that really needed investing. Tyco this isn't. No lavish office curtains (actually, no curtains at all), no big expense accounts or fancy trips. We're brown bag all the way. Frank had no interest in talking to them, so I stopped taking down their 800 numbers.

Now that I think about it, those ol' buddies stopped calling last autumn. Not that I really missed their calls, mind you. They just quietly disappeared.

This morning, that changed. The phone rang before 8:00 am. "Hey, is Frank in yet?" asked the assertive and a bit too friendly voice. "Um...no, he's out of town until Tuesday," I said. The distinctive background buzz of a dozen other cubical callers droned behind John's cheery words. "Oh, well, tell him John from Morgan Stanley called. I'll call him Tuesday." (click)

They're calling again. Frank still doesn't have a stash of cash, but it struck me that I might have just witnessed an obscure economic indicator. The investment guys are active again. If, years from now, we look back and see that the recession bottomed out and started recovering in April of 2009, then remember my obscure economic indicator. It may turn out to be the secret crystal ball that has eluded all those other radio pundits.